【漫步人生】短期反彈未完勿太悲觀

 10月3日,港股處於淡勢,再加上媒體報道百年老店瑞士信貸面臨倒閉風險,投資情緒極度悲觀,恒生指數跌破17000大關,牛證及好友被屠殺,大市低見16906,創近11年新低,成交633億元,出現短期見底跡象。今天(5日)執筆時,在淡友補倉推動下,恒指大幅反彈1008點,收18087點;高見18164點,成交增至1055億元。料挾淡倉持續,儘管本周四(6日)或周五(7日)可能出現回調,但是短期反彈勢頭仍有餘未盡。本周五晚,美國將公布10月份失業數據,料將影響下周初的大市走勢。

港股經歷連續五個季度下跌,今年第三季恒指大跌了4637點,跌幅達21.2%,更是過去11年來最悲慘,大大打擊投資者信心。踏入第四季,傳統上應是港股全年最佳表現的季度,按過去10年平均表現,10月、11月及12月平均升幅分別為1.8% 、1.03%及0.51%。今年會否重拾過往數據的軌跡,筆者偏向「正面」思維。因為港股正處歷史性低位估值水平,以及市場情緒大部分悲觀,根據相反理論,適當時候宜遠離群眾。

史理生
元庫資產管理部董事總經理
reasonsee3@hotmail.com
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