【漫步人生】短期反弹未完勿太悲观

 10月3日,港股处于淡势,再加上媒体报道百年老店瑞士信贷面临倒闭风险,投资情绪极度悲观,恒生指数跌破17000大关,牛证及好友被屠杀,大市低见16906,创近11年新低,成交633亿元,出现短期见底迹象。今天(5日)执笔时,在淡友补仓推动下,恒指大幅反弹1008点,收18087点;高见18164点,成交增至1055亿元。料挟淡仓持续,尽管本周四(6日)或周五(7日)可能出现回调,但是短期反弹势头仍有余未尽。本周五晚,美国将公布10月份失业数据,料将影响下周初的大市走势。

 港股经历连续五个季度下跌,今年第三季恒指大跌了4637点,跌幅达21.2%,更是过去11年来最悲惨,大大打击投资者信心。踏入第四季,传统上应是港股全年最佳表现的季度,按过去10年平均表现,10月、11月及12月平均升幅分别为1.8% 、1.03%及0.51%。今年会否重拾过往数据的轨迹,笔者偏向「正面」思维。因为港股正处历史性低位估值水平,以及市场情绪大部分悲观,根据相反理论,适当时候宜远离群众。

史理生
元库资产管理部董事总经理
reasonsee3@hotmail.com
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